By Nick Leach | 6.30.10

The dust has settled (for now) on USC after the NCAA showed them the power of their pimp hand which included a loss of 30 scholarships over 3 years, two year bowl ban, 4 years probation and a possible loss of their '04 title. The mythical removal of the national title is pointless and only serves to bring back imagery of the sanctions in years to come since, a) everyone who was around will still know USC won the already much debated on national title of that year, and b) the asterisk that they will plant next to that title will serve as the footnote reminder of the NCAA's near decade long nappy nap while USC ran amok around the house.

The bowl ban will be appealed and they will hope it gets reduced to one. When it will begin is another issue but if it began this year that means future recruits would only risk missing one bowl game (the 2011 class's first year). I don't think too many kids are going to change a 4 year decision on one game in their freshman year. Maybe it makes some think more, but where are they going to go..UCLA?! Cal?! Ah, come on, USC could probably be reduced to just practices and still pull who they want -- so that bowl ban won't be a large detriment to Lane and his motley crew.

Probation...don't even get me started on that. NCAA probation is essentially equal to "grounding" your kid to his room wherein lies the flat-screen HD television, digital cable, laptop, and XBOX 360. Okay, so he has to stay in the same room for a couple days but he can still do pretty much whatever he wants. USC was able (and to be clear, USC is one of most that does this) to get by with some behind the scenes shenanigans for years and years, in fact they were so good at it that was their problem. They felt invincible and in that ego trip they didn't cover their tracks as well as they should and now all probation will do is remind them to be a little better about that. Big whoop, point taken, and now they will realize just like that kid..being grounded isn't so bad after all! (For the record, back in my day all we had in our rooms were sun dials and abacuses..not the same!)

Let's take a look at the REAL hard hit of the sanctions...the loss of 10 scholarships for 3 years. We can try to imagine what that will mean and how it will impact it, but there's a better way to do it.

Pretend this happened 4 years ago, and then those sanctions came down. We're going to take a look at the '07-'09 classes and using recruiting database rankings remove the lowest ten rankings recruits. The reason for doing that is we can't possibly know how USC's board was put up and since Pete won't return my tweets and Lane is still mad at me giving the wink and the gun ;) to Layla I don't think he's about to tell me either. So for the sake of their sanity, we'll list the ten lowest ranked recruits from those years based on rankings from Scout.

2009 - Torin Harris, Jacob Harfman, Kevin Greene, Simione Vehikite, James Boyd, Jawanza Starling, Byron Moore, Frankie Telfort, Jarvis Jones, John Martinez

2008 - Wes Horton, Curtis Mcneal, Drew McAllister, Daniel Campbell, Brice Butler, Uona Kaveinga, Jurrell Casey, Brian Baucham, Malik Jackson, Khaled Holmes.

2007 - Broderick Green, Rhett Ellison, Christian Tupou, Trey Henderson, Malcolm Smith, Brandon Carswell, Jordan Campbell, Michael Reardon, Martin Coleman, Da'John Harris.


Now one point that should be noted is in the 2007 class they had 18 kids and 10 of which were 5* prospects. That means that they'd have to forego at least two of those 5*'s, now tell me that won't hurt! Over the years there have been a handful of transfers out of those 30 so this next step won't be perfect but one look at that tells you that the loss of scholarships will be the major impact.

The next process then is taking a look at USC's depth chart and seeing where they would be now without those guys, since this loss of scholarships will be felt 7 and 8 years down the road, it's not just a 3 year impact.

On the offensive line, they are missing their top two RG's. Not a huge impact but it helps illustrate one of the main points, just a couple losses in a core group will spread you out. They'd have to throw a senior (Butch Lewis) at right guard which isn't so bad until you realize he was beat out..by a freshman at left guard. This also makes you incredibly thin if an injury hits, or say if Lewis falls flat on his face.

At the skill positions they'd be without their starting split, Brice Butler, who is another all too common rising star at WR for them. Curtis McNeal is one of their top backups at RB and would fight with Dillon Baxter for the main role at tailback next year, all of a sudden leaving you pretty thin and relying on either a redshirt freshman or a true sophomore without much help behind him.

On the defensive side you see more of an impact. Their starting interior lineman in Harris and Casey would be gone, not to mention a possible starter at weak-side DE in Wes Horton, and also his backup in Kevin Greene. Three of a possible four starters being gone? Oy vey!

At linebacker they'd still be flying high with only a loss in a backup at WLB with Vehikite gone.

In the secondary, you see more issues. Starting SS Starling, and his backup (Moore), and the backup to the backup (McAllister) would all be gone. Now obviously they'd bump some guys around in the pecking order on their recruiting board to make sure that didn't happen, but that only means they have to 100% hit on that player because if he's a bust, well you find yourself in the position we just described.

What does this tell us? Depth is the major hit and the cost of hitting an injury has shockwaves much more then they can comprehend right now. The risk of missing on a recruit is also felt like never before. USC can go out and grab two high quality kids at the same spot, as they have already done at QB this cycle with Wittek and Kessler, but in the future they'll only be able to grab one of those. So which one would they take? Do they take the high risk, high reward because after all, they are USC! Big things are expected. Or do they go the safer route due to the fact they can't miss when taking only one kid?

It's also intriguing when you think about the type of recruiters Lane and Ed Orgeron are...the go big or go home type. Can you imagine them going the safe route? These guys think they are geniuses, playing it safe has never been an option to them. They will still go after the high risk, high reward recruits so the true test of how good they are, specifically Orgeron since he is the main driving force behind their recruiting, is about to be put to the test. Come out of this just as strong as they were before and it's one of the greatest coaching jobs of all-time. Crash and burn and they will be ridiculed for playing with fire instead of going the safer route.

The other sanctions will not affect USC very much, they are who they are. The top kids on the West Coast have always dreamed of going to Southern Cal and that is not going to change. In fact, it might have the exact opposite affect! With fewer offers they all of a sudden become even more prestigious; getting an offer will hold more value than ever before. Besides, what are their other options? Oregon? Beyond the obvious off the field mishaps that will scare parents more (come on, theft vs. gifts?! That's like being asked would you rather be robbed or wake up as a kid on Christmas morning, unless you're a sadist that is.). UCLA, Cal, Arizona, etc.? They could add up their success and prestige and still not approach USC. The one school that might see an opening is Stanford since they have the hot coach of the moment in Jim Harbaugh and academics that are so good you feel smarter just saying their name (say Stanford, it just sounds smart). Their issue then becomes the increased difficulty in being cleared for those recruits. As you see, there aren't a whole lot of threats out there to USC.

When Miami was hit with their scholarship losses in the past they had FSU and Florida in-state nipping at their heels waiting for them to fall, USC is nip-free. These sanctions will make things difficult and could make or break Lane and Co., but the truth is that USC will be able to get through this and will still be the King on the West Coast when the impact is all said, done, and felt.